Counterintuitive Facts (85): Why the More Precise Your Data, the Farther You Are From Truth?
PremiumMcNamara Fallacy: What can be quantified is just the tip of the iceberg. The most fatal is always that unquantifiable X
I. Robert McNamara was former US Secretary of Defense. He was once president of Ford Motor Company, an elite from Harvard Business School. He believed in data management. All decisions should be based on precise numbers. He brought this methodology to the Vietnam War.
II. During Vietnam, McNamara demanded daily reports of precise data: Body Count. How many Viet Cong killed? Ammunition consumption. How many bullets used? Villages occupied. How much territory controlled? Enemy loss ratio. For every 1 we lose, how many do they lose?
III. The data was beautiful. American body count far exceeded American casualties. Ammo was plentiful. Logistics were smooth. Controlled territory kept expanding. According to computer projections, America must win. Every indicator was rising.
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