Counterintuitive Facts (16): The Most Effective Threat Is a One Time Thing: You Only Get One Chance

I. In the iterated prisoner's dilemma, besides "Tit for Tat" which gently hits back punch for punch. There's an extremely cold strategy. It's called the Grim Trigger Strategy.

II. The rules are extremely simple:

1. We start cooperating.
2. As long as you betray me once. Even just once.
3. From that moment on, I will forever betray you. No matter how you apologize, how you make amends, crying and kneeling begging me. Even if it's the end of the world. I will never forgive.

III. This strategy sounds like a mental patient's logic. You only stole one candy from the supermarket, and I sentence you to life in prison. No buffer, no forgiveness. One touch and it triggers. Your life is finished (Grim).

IV. But if you think about it. This is exactly the logic of nuclear deterrence. And nuclear deterrence h