AI Practice Knowledge BaseAI Self-Growth System
Trend Prediction Engine
PremiumDo not chase waves at the peak; ambush before the rise.
Trend Prediction Engine: Search for Alpha
"True alpha is about capturing slope change, not absolute values."
What you will get in this chapter
- A minimum viable trend prediction system (MVS)
- Slope/momentum model and thresholds
- Key metrics and validation methods
One-sentence definition
Trend prediction = monitor signals -> compute slope -> publish early.
The core is being earlier than others.
Minimum viable trend system (MVS)
| Step | You need | Acceptance result |
|---|---|---|
| Seed keywords | 20-50 core terms | Expandable related queries |
| Monitoring | Trends data source | Auto pull every day |
| Thresholds | Slope + heat gate | Trigger only a few high-potential terms |
| Publishing | Auto-trigger content generation | Go live within 24 hours |
Qualified signal: predicted terms get search impressions within 7 days.
Trend scoring model (core)
Scoring dimensions
- Slope: growth slope
- Velocity: growth speed
- Volume: current heat
- Novelty: how new the term is
Scoring formula (0-100)
TrendScore = 35*Slope + 25*Velocity + 25*Volume + 15*NoveltyTrigger thresholds
- TrendScore >= 70
- Slope >= 0.4
- Volume >= 20
Trend SOP (standard process)
- Update seed keywords (monthly)
- Pull trend data (daily)
- Compute TrendScore
- Trigger generation and publishing
- Monitor search impressions and clicks
Core metrics (must track)
Definition (default):
- Time window: unless stated otherwise, use the last 7 days rolling.
- Data source: use one trusted source (GA4/GSC/platform console/logs) and keep it consistent.
- Scope: only the current product/channel, exclude self-tests and bots.
| Metric | Meaning | Pass line |
|---|---|---|
| Lead Time | How much earlier you go live than the market | >= 3 days |
| Hit Rate | Prediction hit rate | >= 20% |
| Index Time | Indexing time | <= 5 days |
| CTR | Clicks / impressions | >= 1% |
Acceptance checklist
Trend data source is connected and can be pulled daily
Slope/threshold model is validated and can trigger
Predicted terms can be generated and published within 24 hours
Common mistakes
- Only look at heat, not slope -> chasing hotspots
- Thresholds too low -> too many false positives
- No fast publishing -> lose the edge
Community case addendum (from developer communities)
The following are public community shares. Metrics are self-reported or taken from public pages and are not independently verified:
- HN Show HN: Early Shift monitors 500+ Roblox games and YouTube activity. The trigger is CCU growth >= 25% + keyword match, aiming to find mechanic trends 24-48 hours earlier (author claim). Link: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45484843
Summary
Key takeaways
1. Slope matters more than heat; speed defines advantage.
2. Use TrendScore to control false positives and overload.
3. Hit rate does not need to be high, but must be fast.
Next chapter, we will cover the Data Moat -- turn short-term arbitrage into long-term assets.