AI Practice Knowledge BaseAI Self-Growth System
Next S-Curve
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Next S-Curve: Jump Before the Peak
"Every curve slows down. Real masters start the next one before that."
What you will get in this chapter
- A minimum viable next-curve system (MVS)
- SOP to launch the next curve and stop-loss rules
- Core metrics and decision signals
One-sentence definition
Next S-curve = validate the next growth curve with small bets before the core business tops out.
It is not abandoning the core business, it is paving the way for the future.
Minimum viable next-curve system (MVS)
| Step | You need | Acceptance result |
|---|---|---|
| Warning | Monitor growth slope changes | Detect slowdowns early |
| Exploration pool | 3-5 candidate directions | Ready to run experiments |
| Experiment mechanism | Small-budget MVP | Validate within 4 weeks |
| Stop-loss rules | Failure conditions | Losses are controlled |
Qualified signal: validate at least 1 candidate direction per quarter.
Next-curve SOP (standard process)
- Monitor the main curve: slope decline triggers warning
- List adjacent opportunities: extend from existing assets
- Run small experiments: MVP + real user feedback
- Set stop-loss: shut down if metrics miss deadlines
- Scale after validation: ramp fast once confirmed
- Protect the cash cow: the core curve must fund the next one
Core metrics (must track)
Definition (default):
- Time window: unless stated otherwise, use the last 7 days rolling.
- Data source: use one trusted source (GA4/GSC/platform console/logs) and keep it consistent.
- Scope: only the current product/channel, exclude self-tests and bots.
| Metric | Meaning | Pass line |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Slope | Core business growth rate | Warn 2 quarters before decline |
| Experiment Cadence | Experiment frequency | >= 2/month |
| New Curve Share | New-curve revenue share | >= 10% |
| Runway | Cash runway | >= 12 months |
| PMF Signal | Retention in new direction | >= 25% |
Acceptance checklist
The main curve has stable cash flow to support exploration
At least 1 candidate direction is validated each quarter
Stop-loss rules are defined and executable
Common mistakes
- Jump too early -> the core curve is not stable
- Jump too late -> resources dry up
- All-in -> failure of the new curve collapses the business
Community case addendum (from developer communities)
The following are public community shares. Metrics are self-reported or taken from public pages and are not independently verified:
- HN Show HN: After Plandex v1 launched, the author says it hit GitHub Trending and accumulated 8k+ stars. Eight months later, v2 shipped as an "almost new" version; a version upgrade opened a new curve (author claim). Link: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43569813
Summary
Key takeaways
1. Start the next curve before the core curve peaks.
2. Validate with small bets, scale after success.
3. The core curve is the cash cow, do not abandon it.
The automation endgame section ends here. Next is the Case Studies section, where we dissect typical growth paths with real structures.