Counterintuitive Facts (45): The Older Something Is, the Less Likely It Is to Die

I. If you see two elderly people, one 80, one 90. You'd predict the 90 year old will die first. This is because humans are Fragile. Our flesh follows the rules of physical wear. The longer you live, the closer to death. For biological organisms, time is the enemy.

II. But if you see two books: One has been circulating for 2000 years (like "Analerta"). One was just published a month ago (like some bestseller). Which one will still be circulating 100 years from now? Definitely the Analects. That bestseller might be number one on charts right now, but next year it'll probably be pulped.

III. This is the Lindy Effect. For things that don't perish. Ideas, technology, culture, books, art, religion. The logic is completely reversed: The longer it has lived, the longer its expected remaining lifes