Counterintuitive Facts (71): Why Does Musk Think Our Chance of Living in Base Reality Is Only One in a Billion?

I. 40 years ago, our games were two pixels on a screen (Pong). 20 years ago, we had 3D games. Today, we have realistic ray tracing, physics engines, open worlds. In another 40 years? Another 400 years? Another 4000 years?

II. As long as humanity doesn't go extinct, our computing power will eventually be powerful enough to simulate the entire universe down to every atom. Even simulate consciousness. When that day comes, how many "simulated universes" will we create? Billions? Trillions?

III. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed the Simulation Hypothesis trilemma in 2003. At least one of the following three propositions must be true:

Proposition One: All civilizations go extinct before developing technology that can "simulate consciousness." (The Great Filter killed all civilizations.)

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